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      時間:2020-12-07    點擊數:


      Jingling Luojia Finance Seminar: Winter Macro Workshop, 2020


      Finance Department, Economics and Management School, Wuhan University

      一、議程 (Schedule)

      時間 (Time)2020/12/12

      場地 (Venue):經管院A321


      報告人 (Speaker):張敏 (華東師范大學)

      報告 1

      Presentation   1

      題目 (Title):疫情沖擊下的勞動力二元市場反應與政策評估——勞動搜尋匹配模型視角


      報告人 (Speaker):孫榮榮 (河南大學)

      報告 2

      Presentation   2

      題目 (Title)Household Debt, Credit Constraints and Discrimination   in China


      茶歇 (Tea   Break)


      報告人 (Speaker):金昊 (廈門大學)

      報告 3

      Presentation   3

      題目 (Title)Global Saving Glut and Sector Dynamics in the United   States


      午餐 (Lunch):珞珈山莊


      報告人 (Speaker):楊柳 (華中師范大學)

      報告 4

      Presentation   4

      題目 (Title):銀行部門期限錯配與貨幣政策傳導效果


      報告人 (Speaker):李倩 (上海財經大學)

      報告 5

      Presentation   5

      題目 (Title)The Welfare Analysis of the Itemized Deduction of   Medical Expenditures

      [with Ning Fu]


      茶歇 (Tea   Break)


      報告人 (Speaker):熊琛 (武漢大學)

      報告 6

      Presentation   6

      題目 (Title):銀行間市場與地方政府債務風險的區域間外溢


      晚餐 (Dinner)TBA


      1. 張敏 (Prof. Min Zhang)

      個人簡介 (Bio):華東師范大學經管學部研究員,博導,加拿大多倫多大學經濟學博士,主要研究領域為宏觀經濟,中國經濟,勞動經濟。其主要研究成果發表在Review of Economic DynamicsJournal of Population EconomicsMacroeconomic Dynamics等多個國際權威經濟學雜志上,主持多項國家自科科學基金課題。

      文章題目 (Title):疫情沖擊下的勞動力二元市場反應與政策評估——勞動搜尋匹配模型視角

      文章摘要 (Abstract):內容摘要:在后疫情時代,政府積極運用財政政策努力落實“穩就業、保民生”。全面、科學地評估政策效果對于穩步推進“六穩”“六保”工作具有重要的現實意義。本研究運用勞動搜尋匹配模型,深入刻畫中國勞動力市場近二十年來的核心特征,通過模型校準模擬定量分析疫情對勞動力市場供求關系的影響,科學評估不同財政救助政策的宏觀效果。本研究發現,當人均勞動生產率下降5%時,在工資剛性的約束下,失業率上升2.27個百分點,社會福利下降5.48個百分點;疫情對失業的負向影響隨著工資剛性的減弱而下降,但消費或社會福利損失隨著工資剛性的減弱而加強。同時,不同救助政策的比較研究表明,對失業勞動者提供失業補助顯著提高失業;相對于對企業提供工資補貼而言,補貼企業崗位創建對于降低失業,提升消費有著顯著的積極影響。

      2. 孫榮榮 (Prof. Rongrong Sun)

      個人簡介 (Bio)Professor in the School of Economics at Henan University. Before joining Henan University, she worked as Assistant Professor at University of Nottingham Ningbo China. She obtained her Doctor degree in Economics from the University of Wuppertal (Germany) in 2013. Her research interests include Monetary Economics, Macroeconomics and Chinese Economic Studies, with papers published in Journal of Banking & Finance, Journal of International Money and Finance, International Journal of Central Banking, Oxford Review of Economic Policy and China Economic Review, etc.

      文章題目 (Title)Household Debt, Credit Constraints and Discrimination in China

      文章摘要 (Abstract)Who drives high demand for credit? Whom do banks ration loans to? This paper studies credit demand and credit constraints in China, using four rounds of the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2017). We trace the demand and supply sides of the loan market and estimate them separately. It turns out that the observed low borrowing in the retired households arises from low demand, rather than from denial of credit. Results show that around 14% of households are constrained in 2012, with old less-educated male unemployed households being the most constrained, while high income, high wealth and more education lower credit constraints. There is no evidence suggesting ethnic or rural discrimination in credit rationing. We find a happy match: A young household is most likely to demand consumer loans, while it is also preferred by banks in granting loans. Moreover, there is positive discrimination in favor of the female when banks grant loans. A counterfactual exercise shows that if borrowing constraints were relaxed for credit-constrained households, these families would hold at least an average of 162,0000 yuan (2012 RBM) more debt.

      3. 金昊 (Prof. Hao Jin)

      個人簡介 (Bio):金昊,經濟學博士,現任廈門大學王亞南經濟研究院與經濟學院助理教授,研究領域為宏觀經濟學、貨幣與財政政策、開放宏觀經濟學。論文發表于Review of Economic DynamicsJournal of International Money and Finance、經濟學(季刊)、中國工業經濟等國內外經濟學權威期刊。主持國家自科基金和教育部人文社科基金青年項目,參與多個國家社科重大和自科面上項目。擔任Review of Economic DynamicsJournal of International Money and FinanceEconomic Modelling、經濟學(季刊)、中國工業經濟、系統工程理論與實踐等期刊的審稿人。研究成果曾獲福建省社會科學優秀成果獎三等獎。

      文章題目 (Title)Global Saving Glut and Sector Dynamics in the United States

      文章摘要 (Abstract)We document that the sharp rise of current account deficit in the U.S. between 1997 to 2007 is associated with a decline of tradable sector share in output, employment, credit, operating surplus and firm number. We develop a two-counrty, two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to assess to what extent the global saving glut can account for the simultaneous changes in the U.S. current account and the sector composition. We find that foreign saving desire explains a significant portion of the dynamics of sector shares. Our results also imply frictional credit market and endogenous firm entry are important to produce the observed asymmetric resource allocation and amplify the impact of global saving glut on the U.S. business cycles.

      4. 楊柳 (Prof. Liu Yang)

      個人簡介 (Bio):楊柳,女,華中師范大學經濟與工商管理學院教授,博士生導師,金融工程系主任,金融工程研究中心副主任、金融碩士專業學位學科負責人;中國人民銀行武漢分行研究顧問,湖北省金融統計學會理事,研究領域為貨幣金融學,金融穩定和銀行風險管理。

      文章題目 (Title):銀行部門期限錯配與貨幣政策傳導效果

      文章摘要 (Abstract):針對新常態下貨幣政策調控效果弱化的經驗事實,本文將具備期限錯配特征的銀行部門引入DSGE模型,對“寬貨幣”難以向“寬信用”轉化的銀行傳導渠道阻滯機理進行了分析。研究顯示:(1)銀行深度期限錯配使政策利率呈現不完全傳遞,銀行傾向于利用寬貨幣下負債成本削減效應積累資本,信貸擴張弱化。(2)期限錯配加劇了貨幣政策對金融穩定的溢出,銀行凈值在貨幣沖擊下呈現高波動性,抑制了銀行資本渠道的有效性。考慮期限錯配的“雙支柱”政策實驗顯示,盯住信貸總量的差別準備金動態調整能促進貨幣政策傳導,通過穩定金融部門提高貨幣政策調控效力。

      5. 李倩 (Prof. Qian Li)

      個人簡介 (Bio)上海財經大學高等研究院助教授。長期從事公共金融、財政學和計算經濟學研究。多項研究發表于國際期刊,如Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Economic Letters The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics

      文章題目 (Title)The Welfare Analysis of the Itemized Deduction of Medical Expen-ditures

      文章摘要 (Abstract)This paper quantifies the welfare consequences of China's 2019 individual income tax reform: itemized deduction for medical expenditures. We establish a general equilibrium overlapping generation model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous households that contain both males and females. We find that the reform will bring an average welfare gain of 0.39% in the long run and 0.24% in the short run. However, this reform is regressive because it grants high income households with more generous tax deductions and cannot provide enough support to the neediest families whose both spouses are hit by the worst health shock. We find that a complete medical expense deduction from taxable income can generate a maximum welfare gain of 1.2% at steady state, and an income-dependent deduction threshold can attenuate the negative redistribution.

      6. 熊琛 (Prof. Chen Xiong)

      個人簡介 (Bio)武漢大學經濟與管理學院聘期制講師。2020年畢業于廈門大學王亞南經濟研究院。論文發表于(含待刊)《經濟學(季刊)》、《中國工業經濟》、Journal of International Money and Finance等國內外學術期刊。曾獲第五屆全國金融學博士生論壇一等獎。

      文章題目 (Title):銀行間市場與地方政府債務風險的區域間外溢

      文章摘要 (Abstract):本文從實證和理論兩方面分析了地方政府債務風險的外溢效應和渠道。我們首先使用網絡分析方法和VAR模型實證發現區域地方政府債務風險存在外溢效應,且銀行間市場是風險傳導的重要渠道。接著我們構建了一個包含中央和地方政府以及銀行間市場的兩區域動態隨機一般均衡模型來量化分析地方政府債務風險的外溢程度和風險防范政策的效果。模型的數值模擬顯示一個區域的地方政府債務風險會影響當地的地方銀行資產負債表狀況,并通過銀行間市場中的資金拆借形成風險擴散,造成其他區域的地方銀行融資條件惡化,最終導致其他區域政府債券的溢價上升。反事實政策模擬發現對銀行間市場的干預以及對地方銀行的救助均有助于緩解區域債務風險的外溢,降低系統性風險和對實體經濟的負面影響。因此,我們建議在防范地方政府債務風險時需要考慮到風險的地區差異,劃分出不同區域的風險等級,對不同風險等級的區域采取差異性的風險防控,必要時采用銀行間市場干預政策以及地方性銀行救助等應對措施以防止區域風險的傳導與擴散。